🔗 Share this article

Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the largest resurgence is handed the award. However, it fuels an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

Yet the current competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and longtime also-rans ascending collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by QBs. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper environment, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of improvising. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic out of nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm passer – has worked. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who entered the organization with the immense hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a normal season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a typical season!

The area where his candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for sustained winning. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the off-field stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and experience, he hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. Coen gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still